Mobility Restrictions and the Control of COVID-19
Keywords:Mobility Restrictions, COVID 19, Diseases Risk, Health Infrastructure
A recent study on the impact of mobility controls on the final size of epidemics by Espinoza, Castillo-Chavez, and Perrings (2020) found that mobility restrictions between areas experiencing different levels of disease risk and with different public health infrastructures do not always reduce the final epidemic size. Indeed, restrictions on the mobility of people from high-risk to low-risk areas can increase, not reduce, the total number of infections. Since the first response of many countries to the COVID-19 pandemic was to implement mobility restrictions, it is worth bearing in mind the implications of the Espinoza result when considering the effectiveness of such restrictions.
Alon, T. M., M. Doepke, J. Olmstead-Rumsey, and M. Tertilt. 2020. “The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality.” Working Paper 2937. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26947
Arino, J., R. Jordan, and P. Van den Driessche. 2007. “Quarantine in a Multi-Species Epidemic Model with Spatial Dynamics.” Mathematical Biosciences 206: 46–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2005.09.002
Bichara, D., Y. Kang, C. Castillo-Chavez, R. Horan, and C. Perrings. 2015. “SIS and SIR Epidemic Models Under Virtual Dispersal.” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 77: 2004–2034. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-015-0113-5
Bong, C.-L., C. Brasher, E. Chikumba, R. McDougall, J. Mellin-Olsen, and A. Enright. 2020. “The COVID-19 Pandemic: Effects on Low-and Middle-Income Countries.” Anesthesia and Analgesia, 131 (1): 86–92. https://doi.org/10.1213/ANE.0000000000004846
Castillo-Chavez, C., R. Curtiss, P. Daszak, S. A. Levin, O. Patterson-Lomba, C. Perrings, G. Poste, and S. Towers. 2015. “Beyond Ebola: Lessons to Mitigate Future Pandemics." The Lancet Global Health 3: e354–e355. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00068-6
Coven, J., and A. Gupta. 2020. “Disparities in Mobility Responses to Covid-19.” NYU Stern Working Paper. New York: NYU Stern School of Business.
Daszak, P. 2012. “Anatomy of a Pandemic.” The Lancet 380: 1883–1884. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61887-X
Espinoza, B., C. Castillo-Chavez, and C. Perrings. 2020. "Mobility Restrictions for the Control of Epidemics: When do they Work?” PLoS One 15: e0235731. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235731
Espinoza, B., V. Moreno, D. Bichara, and C. Castillo-Chavez. 2016. “Assessing the Efficiency of Movement Restriction as a Control Strategy of Ebola”. In Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, 123–145. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_9
Fenichel, E., C. Castillo-Chavez, M. Ceddia, G. Chowell, P. Gonzales Parra, G. Hickling, G. Holloway et al. 2011. “Adaptive Human Behavior in Epidemiological Models.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108: 6306–6311. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011250108
Guan, D., D. Wang, S. Hallegatte, J. Huo, S. Li, Y. Bai, T. Lei et al. 2020. “Global Economic Footprint of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Nature Human Behavior: forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-25857/v1
International Monetary Fund. 2020. World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown. Washington DC: IMF.
International Organization for Migration. 2020. Travel Restrictions Related to Travel Routes. Geneva: IOM.
Jones, K. E., N. Patel, M. Levy, A. Storeygard, D. Balk, J. L. Gittleman, and P. Daszak. 2008. “Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases”. Nature 451: 990–993. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06536
McNeill, J. R. 2003. “Europe's Place in the Global History of Biological Exchange.” Landscape Research 28: 33–39. https://doi.org/10.1080/01426390306530
McNeill, W. H. 1977. Plagues and People. New York: Anchor Books. https://doi.org/10.1097/00004010-197721000-00022
Perrings, C., C. Castillo-Chavez, G. Chowell, P. Daszak, E. Fenichel, D. Finnoff, R. Horan et al. 2014. “Merging Economics and Epidemiology to Improve the Prediction and Management of Infectious Disease.” Ecohealth 11: 464-475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-014-0963-6
Sandler, T. 2004. Global Collective Action. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511617119
Shi, S., S. Tanaka, R. Ueno, S. Gilmour, Y. Tanoue, T. Kawashima, S. Nomura, A. Eguchi, H. Miyatag, and D. Yoneokad. 2020. “Travel Restrictions and SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: An Effective Distance Approach to Estimate Impact.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization. Geneva: WHO. https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.255679
Sirkeci, I., and M. M. Yucesahin. 2020. “Coronavirus and Migration: Analysis of Human Mobility and the Spread of Covid-19.” Migration Letters 17: 379–398. https://doi.org/10.33182/ml.v17i2.935
Sonenthal, P. D., J. Masiye, N. Kasomekera, R. H. Marsh, E. B. Wroe, K. W. Scott, R. Li, M. B. Murray, A. Bukhman, and E. Connolly. 2020. “COVID-19 Preparedness in Malawi: A National Facility-Based Critical Care Assessment.” The Lancet Global Health 8 (7): e890–892. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30250-3
Towers, S., O. Patterson-Lomba, and C. Castillo-Chavez. 2014. “Temporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak.” PLOS Currents Outbreaks, Sept 18, Edition 1. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9e4c4294ec8ce1adad283172b16bc908
Wenham, C., J. Smith, and R. Morgan. 2020. “COVID-19: The Gendered Impacts of the Outbreak.” The Lancet 395: 846–848. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30526-2
World Trade Organization. 2020a. Trade in Services in the Context of COVID-19. Geneva: WTO.
—. 2020b. Trade Set to Plunge as COVID-19 Pandemic Upends Global Economy." Geneva: WTO.
Copyright (c) 2021 Charles Perrings, Baltazar Espinoza
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
The author(s) retain copyright on work published by INSEE unless specified otherwise.
Licensing and publishing rights
Author(s) of work published by INSEE are required to transfer non-exclusive publishing right to INSEE of the definitive work in any format, language and medium, for any lawful purpose.
Authors who publish in Ecology, Economy and Society will release their articles under the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) license. This license allows anyone to copy and distribute the article for non-commercial purposes provided that appropriate attribution is given.
For details of the rights that the authors grant users of their work, see the "human-readable summary" of the license, with a link to the full license. (Note that "you" refers to a user, not an author, in the summary.)
The authors retain the non-exclusive right to do anything they wish with the published article(s), provided attribution is given to the Ecology, Economy and Society—the INSEE Journal with details of the original publication, as set out in the official citation of the article published in the journal. The retained right specifically includes the right to post the article on the authors’ or their institution’s websites or in institutional repositories.
In case of re-publishing a previously published work, author may note that earlier publication may have taken place a license different from Creative Commons. In all such cases of re-publishing, we advise the authors to consult the applicable licence at article level.